PROGNOSIS OF THE INDIVIDUAL RISK COVID-19
INTELLIGENT DESCALING OF CONFINEMENT
This free application has been built based on studies of the spread of the virus in China and has been contrasted with current data on the situation in our country.
The objective of using it is to make individualized forecasts of the risks due to the affectation of COVID 19. At a time when the health, social and economic crisis overlap, the individual determination of health risk would help to establish criteria to protect the most vulnerable, which have not yet been infected, during the de-escalation process and would also allow classifying individuals with a lower risk of complications during contagion.
To give an example, in the face of the imminent return to work in "non-essential" areas, people who, if infected, would be jeopardized by a risk profile not clearly defined, but who this tool can discriminate.
The images show the risk forecasts of a 50-year-old person with some type of pre-existing medical condition (diabetes, asthma, hypertension) that, if infected with COVID 19, would put their lives in danger (red line of critical status in the graph).
The companies and activities that are starting up again could make this simple forecast to their employees and recommend these people to confine themselves to their homes. The ideal, in any case, would be for governments to decree compliance with measures like this.
The Autonomous Communities, City Halls and the Central Government have a tool that could help carry out a de-escalation of confinement, without putting the most vulnerable citizens at risk. Especially high-risk people who have not yet been infected with coronavirus, could, in this period, foreseeably long until a vaccine is found, be included in special protection plans, while the population at lower risk sets in motion the productivity of the communities and countries. This would be a useful tool for intelligent de-escalation, minimizing and combating the social and economic crisis associated with this health emergency.
In the image, prognosis of a 70-year-old person at high risk (prolonged ICU stay)
These people, during de-escalation and until they are vaccinated, should be cared for and protected at home by people in their environment, immunized and with external support for making purchases and any necessary activity that involves a minimum risk of contact with the outside world.
In the following image, an example of a highly vulnerable profile. Citizens who should be subject to special protection plans during the following phases of the crisis (Noah's Ark with extreme measures of health security and long-term comfort) until they are properly vaccinated. 80 year old person with pre-existing ailments.
Finally, the mild and moderate risk profiles would be initially classified as fit and fit with health monitoring, to gradually return to working life and reactivate economic activity, as well as social life gradually.
In the app. Graphs of the appearance of symptoms are also obtained, which help to refine the prognoses and to follow up on each of the profiles, making studies and comparisons of real infected patients. Finally, asymptomatic individuals could be the first to carry out a normalized activity with special measures for "super-contagators" until achieving a high level of immunity in the population (60%) without risks for the most vulnerable citizens.
The following images explain the tools and services added on the COVID PREVENT platform for Intelligent De-escalation of the containment measures.
Follow-up and monitoring of individual processes, company policies during the rest of the crisis, social support consultancy and policies for coping with emergencies or outbreaks.